The second of the market segments is for the traditional professional GIS software system. This system will continue to evolve to include more modeling functionality. spatial statistics capability, improved cartography, and integration with remote sensing. The professional GIS market will always exist despite the growth of web mapping applications due to the need to create maps, perform analysis, and do the business of GIS. While many are predicting growth in this market segment, how much growth is a guess best left up to those more knowledgeable in business forecasting. Due to the advanced training required to use, and in some cases interpret GIS output, this market will always be a smaller but more lucrative market than the other two.
The final market segment is the only real new market and the one in which the need to strike while the iron is hot is potentially greatest. The new market segment is a "tweener" segment that fits between web mapping and professional GIS. The best way to describe this market segment is to call it GIS Light, providing some of the advanced features of professional GIS but with the ease and simplicity to use of web mapping services. This market is geared more toward people who want to have fun and explore with GIS and its analysis capabilities, without having to spend lots of time and money on software and training. In particular, this market is geared toward hobbyists (geocahers, runners, hikers, bikers, etc..), students, researchers, and small businesses wanting to perform basic analysis. This is a market for people who enjoy web mapping but find it too limited in its capabilities, yet have no desire to spend the time or money on professional GIS. In order to catch this market the price and functions have to hit the mark so that people will consider it a value for the money ($50-100). GIS Light must have real analysis features such as, abilities to create projects and edit files, perform queries, distance analysis, as well as allow end user customization through standards based programming languages. Because of its price, power and customization, this segment has the potential to be an incubator for new GIS uses and markets much as the internet has spawned a wealth of new industries. In addition, this segment also has the potential to drive users on to professional GIS as users interests and needs evolve. Importantly, it also has the ability to cannibalize some users who will find all the functionality they need but with a much lower cost and much less of a learning curve.
Overall, this segment is most crucial for bringing in the mass of interested users out there who have been drawn to mapping/GIS by the issues that have arisen this year. As of now I have seen no signs of development of a GIS light product from any of the major GIS vendors. Of course, as with everything timing is everything and if GIS developers do not act soon the time will slip past and the industry may miss out on a golden opportunity.